Apple's long-awaited foldable iPhone is finally happening this year, widely expected to be called the iPhone Ultra and announced alongside the iPhone 18 Pro lineup in September. But if you are already planning to pick one up on launch day, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has some important news: you are going to have a very hard time getting one, and you may not even be able to pre-order it in September at all.
The iPhone X Playbook All Over Again
Kuo's latest supply chain survey paints a clear picture. Apple is expected to ship between 7 and 8 million iPhone Ultra units in the second half of 2026, but only 500,000 to 1 million of those will be ready in the third quarter, the window when the device is expected to be announced. For context, the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max combined are projected to ship 20 to 22 million units in the same period. The foldable will represent roughly 5 percent of that volume at launch.
The comparison to the iPhone X is deliberate and accurate. In September 2017, Apple announced the iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and iPhone X on the same day. The iPhone 8 went on pre-order three days later. The iPhone X did not open for pre-order until October 27, six weeks after the announcement, and did not reach customers until November. Kuo believes the iPhone Ultra could follow an almost identical timeline, with pre-orders potentially not opening until Q4 2026, several weeks after the September announcement.
Why Supply Is So Tight
The constraint is a manufacturing problem rather than a demand problem. Foldable smartphones require flexible OLED panels, ultra-thin glass, precision hinges, and highly complex assembly that is fundamentally harder to produce at scale than a conventional smartphone. Production yields for these components are typically lower, particularly in the early stages of a new design. Apple has reportedly spent years refining its hinge and working to minimise the visible crease, and those engineering innovations make the early production ramp slower than a standard iPhone generation.
Kuo also noted that the commonly cited figure of 15 to 20 million foldable iPhones likely reflects cumulative demand across the product's full two to three year lifecycle, not 2026 shipments alone. In other words, the supply picture for this year is significantly tighter than those headline numbers suggest.
What to Expect From the Device Itself
Based on current leaks and rumours, the iPhone Ultra will feature a 5.5-inch external display and a 7.8-inch internal display when unfolded, giving it roughly the footprint of an iPad mini in your pocket. It will be under 5mm thick when open, making it thinner than the iPhone Air. Pricing is expected to start between $2,299 and $2,499 in the US, placing it well above the iPhone 18 Pro Max and directly competing with Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra.
Colour options are expected to be limited at launch, with leakers pointing to just two finishes: a classic silver and white, and an indigo option similar to the iPhone 17 Pro's Deep Blue. A wider colour range would likely follow in a second generation, much like the iPhone X gave way to the iPhone XS with additional finishes the following year.
What This Means for You
Kuo's assessment is straightforward: if you want an iPhone Ultra before the end of 2026, pre-ordering the moment it becomes available is the only reliable path. Delivery times are expected to stretch to four to six weeks or longer immediately after pre-orders open, and Kuo believes scalpers could list the device at a 50 to 100 percent premium given how few units will be available. Getting one through normal retail channels before December is unlikely for most people. By Q1 2027, supply should normalise and the launch buzz will have settled, which Kuo suggests will also give us a much clearer picture of what real-world foldable iPhone demand actually looks like.